January’s US Jobs Report; What To Expect

January’s US Jobs Report; What To Expect

We will focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls today. It will be announced at 13:30 p.m. (GMT).

Why Is This Important?

The Non-Farm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the US in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. It does not include the farming industry employment. It is a significant determinant of a Fed rate hike in 2019.

The Fed Decision is behind us now. Last Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, as expected. However, the US dollar fell toward a three-week low after the Federal Reserve said it will be “patient” on future interest-rate moves and signaled flexibility on the path for reducing its balance sheet. 

Addition to the rate decision, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came out at 213K last Wednesday which was higher than the estimate of 180K.

US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 165K jobs created after rising 312K the previous month. Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to come out at 0.3%, which is lower than previous month reading of 0.4%  A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls, the EURUSD pair is now trading just below the 1.1446 key level. As long as the pair stays below 1.1446, on a four hourly basis,  we might see a downward movement and the daily support level can be found at 1.1367. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1446, we will see 1.1531 as the main resistance level.

Support:  1.1367 - 1.1262 - 1.1188

Resistance: 1.1446 - 1.1531 - 1.1607

GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair found sellers from the key level of 1.3152 yesterday and moved down. In the event that the downward movement continues, we will see 1.3050 and 1.2961 as support levels. On the other hand, if the price moves up above 1.3152, the next resistance level will be at 1.3241.

Support: 1.3050  -  1.2961 - 1.2844

Resistance: 1.3152 - 1.3241 - 1.3377

USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair is trading above the 108.78 key support level. As long as the pair stays above 108.78 on a four hourly basis, the fall may be limited and we will see the daily resistance level at 109.35. Although, if the currency breaks down below 108.78, the next support level is holding at 107.65.

Support: 108.78 - 107.65 - 106.46

Resistance: 109.35 - 109.90 - 110.86

GOLD: The GOLD Price pulled back below the key level of 1319. As long as the yellow metal price trades below 1319, on a four hourly basis, the downward movement may continue and we will follow 1307 as a daily support level. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1319, the next resistance level will be seen at 1330.

Support: 1307 - 1291 - 1283

Resistance: 1319 - 1330 - 1.352

01 Feb 19 (Fri)

07:29 am